同济大学学报（自然科学版）2012，Vol.40Issue(11)：1666-1671,6.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.0253-374x.2012.11.013
基于Markov转移矩阵预测机场道面使用状态
Airport Pavement Performance Estimation Based on Transition Probabilities in Markov Chain
袁捷 1杨俊羽 1苏新 2刘玉海3
作者信息
- 1. 同济大学道路与交通工程教育部重点实验室,上海201804
- 2. 中国民航机场建设集团公司机场工程科研基地,北京100101
- 3. 厦门国际航空港股份有限公司,福建厦门361006
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
The logistic regression equation was used to establish regression relationship among continuous variables such as thickness, traffic level, pavement age, categorical variables such as maintenance grade, climate sector, pavement structure types and the Markov probability prediction. Some airports' actual measurement pavement condition index (PCI) data were used as data source in the parameter estimation and significance test of the model. The parameter calibration method of Markov probability prediction model, and the accuracy of the predictions were improved. The scope of the application of model was expanded and the problems of insufficient observation data and unstable parameter estimation using the traditional forecasting model
were resolved.关键词
Markov过程/道面使用性能/Logistic模型/预测/转移概率矩阵Key words
Markov process/pavement performance/Logistic model/prediction/transition probabilities matrices分类
交通工程引用本文复制引用
袁捷,杨俊羽,苏新,刘玉海..基于Markov转移矩阵预测机场道面使用状态[J].同济大学学报（自然科学版）,2012,40(11):1666-1671,6.
