太原理工大学学报2012，Vol.43Issue(6)：706-709,714,5.
基于时间序列的建筑工程造价预测研究
Research on Prediction of Architectural Engineering Cost based on the Time Series Method
摘要
Abstract
Cost plays a very important role in architectural engineering, and the methods to predict the cost rapidly and accurately are needed. On the basis of the valuation mode of quantities bill, this paper proposed the time series method for predicting project cost. According to the theory of test, modeling and prediction, the paper carried out time series analysis, taking steel price for example. It withdrew the steel price tendency item, then conducted modeling using the price residual item, finally established the model of steel price. In line with the model, the steel price of the first quarter in 2011 was forecasted. By comparing with the real price, it shows that the error was in 5 percent, which proves the model is correct and the time series method based on the valuation mode of quantities bill can be adopted widely to predict manufacturing cost.关键词
建筑工程/工程造价/时间序列/造价预测/钢材价格Key words
architectural engineering/project cost/time series/cost prediction分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
胡六星..基于时间序列的建筑工程造价预测研究[J].太原理工大学学报,2012,43(6):706-709,714,5.基金项目
湖南省科技计划项目资助(2011SK2138) （2011SK2138）
