水资源与水工程学报2012，Vol.23Issue(5)：67-70,4.
包头市市区居民生活用水量预测分析
Forecast of urban residential domestic water consumption in Baotou
摘要
Abstract
The water demand forecast can supply vital basis for reginoal water resources plan, utilization and management. On the basis of analysis of the influence factors of residential domestic water consumption in Baotou City by gray correlation analysis, the paper forecasted the regional domestic water consumption in 2009 and 2010 by modeling a multiple linear regression model, gray model (1,1) and gray linear combination model, and compared their prediction accuracy. The results showed that the main factors to regional domestic water consumption were population of urban water, per capita living space and water price. Forecast of water consumption in 2009 and 2010 had highest accuracy by gray linear combination model; relative errors were 13.6% and 6. 5% respectively; relative error of root mean square was 10.1%. Prediction accuracy of combination forecast model was better than that of single one and made results more accurate, reasonable and realistic.关键词
多元线性回归模型/灰色GM(1,1,)模型/组合灰色模型/灰色关联分析/城市生活用水预测Key words
multiple linear regression model/ gray model GM (1,1)/ combination gray model/ gray correlation analysis/ forecast of urban domestic water consumption分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
刘治学,张鑫,王颖华..包头市市区居民生活用水量预测分析[J].水资源与水工程学报,2012,23(5):67-70,4.基金项目
国家"863"计划项目(14110209) （14110209）
"十一五"国家重大科技支撑计划项目(2006BAD11B05) （2006BAD11B05）
西北农林科技大学博士科研启动基金资助项目(01140504) （01140504）
西北农林科技大学科研专项(08080230) （08080230）
