中国脑血管病杂志2012，Vol.9Issue(10)：529-534,6.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1672-5921.2012.10.006
卒中危险因素联合脑血流动力学指标预测卒中模型的建立
Establishment of a stroke predicting model with risk factors for stroke and cerebral hemodynamic indicators
摘要
Abstract
Objective To establish risk factors for stroke in combination with cerebral hemodynamic indicators for comprehensive assessment of a predicting model of stroke risk. Methods The relationship between all the risk factors and cerebral hemodynamic scores and stroke risks was analyzed according to the prospective cohort baseline survey data in 10 565 subjects and the 7-year follow-up data after stroke onset. A comprehensive prediction model of traditional risk factors in combination with the cerebral hemodynamic scores was established using the Cox proportional hazards model. Using another independent sample cohort data, the back substitution test was conducted and the areas under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to detect the performance of the prediction model. Results ① 28 341. 61 person-year in male and 39 544. 12 person-year in female were followed up in the modeling cohort. The cumulative incidences of stroke in males and females were 3. 28 ‰ and 2. 58 ‰ respectively. ②The equation of stroke predictive model for males was Y = 0. 159 history of CVD +0. 375 history of diabetes + 0. 634 family histo- ry of stroke + 0.609 history of hypertension + 0.037 body mass index (BMI) + 0.068 age - 0.022 hemodynamic score + 0. 186 cigarette smoking + 0.408 alcohol consumption; the equation of stroke predictive model for females was Y = 0. 096 history of CVD + 0.161 history of diabetes + 0. 392 family history of stroke + 0. 139 history of hypertension +0.034 BMI + 0.057 age - 0.021 of hemodynamic score were independent stroke risk factors both for male and female and history of hypertension was an independent risk factors for male. ③The area under the ROC curve for males and females was 0. 839 and 0. 820 with the back substitution test of modeling population cohort and it was 0. 795 and 0. 787 with the back substitution test of the independent population cohort. Conclusion Comprehensive prediction of stroke risk with traditional risk factors in combination with hemodynamic score has a better performance. Cerebral hemodynamic score is a stronger predictor of stroke.关键词
卒中/预测模型/队列研究/血流动力学Key words
Stroke/ Prediction model/ Cohort study/ Hymodynamics引用本文复制引用
黄久仪,刘广西,管阳太,郭吉平,王兆平,王艳,曹奕丰,黄鸣峰,沈凤英,阮英..卒中危险因素联合脑血流动力学指标预测卒中模型的建立[J].中国脑血管病杂志,2012,9(10):529-534,6.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(30771851) （30771851）
