安徽农业科学Issue(36)：17701-17704,17774,5.
宁夏南部山区初夏连阴强降雨过程的物理机制和概念模型
Formation Mechanism and Conceptual Model of the Early Summer Continuous Heavy Rainfall Weather in the Mountain Areas of South Ningxia
张成军 1杨文海 2范小明 2马国涛 2余文梅2
作者信息
- 1. 宁夏气象减灾防灾重点实验室,宁夏银川 750002
- 2. 宁夏固原市气象台,宁夏固原 756000
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
Selecting weather data, physical factors and numerical prediction products, using statistical analysis, diagnosis analysis and synoptic analysis method, the formation mechanism of continuous heavy rainfall during 26 -29, June, 2012 was analyzed, the prediction conceptual model was established, the causes for error were analyzed. The results indicated that the continuous heavy rainfall happened when the circulation pattern was stable and less variable, the more weather systems participated, and the precipitation occurred before the front, when the front passing and after the front passed. Although no unstable stratification and no low-level jet existed in this heavy rainfall, but the vertical rise layer was deep, and the moisture conditions was well. The circulation pattern and systems of ECWMF was relatively reliable, and there were good and bad in the rainfall forecasting capability of other NWP. The main error reason were attributed to the forecaster's over-reliance on the rainfall forecasting of NWP, and the deep understanding capability of the various NWP was not enough.关键词
连阴强降雨/物理机制/概念模型/初夏/宁夏南部山区Key words
Continuous heavy rainfall/ Physical mechanism/ Conceptual model/ Early summer/ Mountainous area of south Ningxia分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
张成军,杨文海,范小明,马国涛,余文梅..宁夏南部山区初夏连阴强降雨过程的物理机制和概念模型[J].安徽农业科学,2012,(36):17701-17704,17774,5.
