安徽医科大学学报2013，Vol.48Issue(3)：252-256,5.
ARIMA模型在合肥市疟疾发病预测中的应用
Application of ARIMA model in the forecasting of malaria incidence in Hefei city
摘要
Abstract
Objective Using the ARIMA( Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ) model to predict the monthly incidence trend of malaria in Hefei city. Methods To construct the multiple seasonal ARIMA model based on the monthly malaria incidence of Hefei city from 1999 to 2011 with SPSS 13. 0 software. To modify the parameters of the ARIMA model according to the monthly malaria incidence in 2011 and then forecasted the monthly malaria incidence in 2012 in Hefei city. Results The ARIMA( 1,1,1 )( 1,1,0 )12 model was the best model to forecast the malaria incidence in Hefei city. The prediction vaules of malaria incidence fit the practical situation. All true values fell in the 95% confidence interval of expected values for expected case numbers of malaria by the model. The mean relative error of the model was 2. 57% . Conclusion It is practical to apply the approach of ARIMA product season model to predicting malaria incidence in Hefei city by testing and the model seemed to be an appropriate model to predict the future incidence trend. This ARIMA model could provide evidence for the development of malaria prevention and control measures.关键词
ARIMA模型/时间序列分析/疟疾/预测/发病率Key words
ARIMA model/time series analysis/malaria/predict/incidence分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
樊雯婧,陆群,邹立巍,仰凤桃,王波,武松,翟金霞..ARIMA模型在合肥市疟疾发病预测中的应用[J].安徽医科大学学报,2013,48(3):252-256,5.基金项目
合肥市2010年度第一批科技计划项目(编号:[2011]25号) （编号:[2011]25号）
