长江科学院院报2013，Vol.30Issue(2)：6-11,6.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1001-5485.2013.02.002
基于影响因子的GM(1,1)-BP模型在八字门滑坡变形预测中的应用
Application of GM (1, 1)-BP Model to the Deformation Prediction of Bazimen Landslide in Consideration of Influencing Factors
摘要
Abstract
Landslide prediction is a worldwide problem, especially how to quantitatively consider external influencing factors in the long-term prediction. On the basis of analyzing the applicability of long-term landslide prediction, a GM(1,1)-BP model based on influencing factors was presented in which external influencing factors such as rainfall and reservoir water level fluctuation were taken into consideration. Bazimen landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir was taken as a case study. The deformation characteristics, influencing factors, and failure mode of the landslide were investigated by analyzing the monitoring data of displacement, reservoir water level and rainfall. The influencing factors of Bazimen landslide were firstly determined, and in subsequence, the model established in the present study, the GM( 1,1) model, and the BP model which does not include the influencing factors were respectively taken to predict the landslide deformation. Results show that the model established in this research has higher precision.关键词
八字门滑坡/变形预测/影响因子/BP模型Key words
Bazimen landslide/ deformation prediction/ influencing factor/ BP model分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
李德营,殷坤龙..基于影响因子的GM(1,1)-BP模型在八字门滑坡变形预测中的应用[J].长江科学院院报,2013,30(2):6-11,6.基金项目
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金优秀青年教师基金(CUGL100213) （CUGL100213）
第51批中国博士后科学基金面上资助项目(2012M511707) （2012M511707）
