大气科学2013，Vol.37Issue(1)：43-53,11.DOI:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2012.11232
基于TIGGE多模式集合的24小时气温BMA概率预报
BMA Probabilistic Forecasting for the 24-h TIGGE Multi-model Ensemble Forecasts of Surface Air Temperature
摘要
Abstract
Bayesian model averaging (BMA) probability forecast models were established through calibration of their parameters using 24-h ensemble forecasts of average daily surface air temperature provided by single-center ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) from the following agencies: the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO), the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), and the United States National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and its multi-center model grand-ensemble (GE) EPSs in the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE), and observations in the Huaihe basin. The BMA probability forecasts of average daily surface air temperature for different EPSs were assessed by comparison with observations in the Huaihe basin. The results suggest that performance was better in the BMA predictive models than that in raw ensemble forecasts. The BMA predictive models for the four single-center EPSs all had good forecast skills; among them, the ECMWF EPS had the best. The BMA predictive models for the GE EPS performed better than any of the four single-center EPSs; those for the GE EPS with exchangeable members (EGE) quickened the computation rate and had the best forecast skill in BMA models for all EPSs. The mean absolute error (MAE) and continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) skills of the BMA models for EGE improved approximately 7% and 10%, respectively, compared with those of raw ensemble forecasts. On the basis of percentile forecasts from the BMA predictive models for EGE, an extreme scorching weather warning scheme was proposed in the study area, which is of significant importance for precautionary measures against such weather conditions.关键词
贝叶斯模型平均/TIGGE/地面日均气温/集合预报/概率预报Key words
Bayesian model averaging/ TIGGE/ Average daily surface air temperature/ Ensemble forecasts/ Probabilistic forecasts分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
刘建国,谢正辉,赵琳娜,贾炳浩..基于TIGGE多模式集合的24小时气温BMA概率预报[J].大气科学,2013,37(1):43-53,11.基金项目
公益性行业(气象)科研专项GYHY201006037,国家自然科学基金资助项目41075062、91125016,国家重点基础研究发展规划项目2010CB951001、2010CB428403 （气象）
