电网技术2012，Vol.36Issue(12)：236-241,6.
应用对数平均迪式指数法的中国工业电力需求增长率分析
LMDI-Based Analysis on Electricity Demand Growth Rate of Industrial Sectors in China
摘要
Abstract
About 70% of electricity consumption of the whole society of China is consumed by her industrial sectors, so it is significant for both power grid planning and energy conservation and pollution emission reduction to research the variation of power demand of industrial sectors in depth. The logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) is adopted to decompose the growth rate of industrial electricity consumption from 2003 to 2010 and following results are attained: the effect of industrial output and the change of energy structure are main factors impacting the growth of electricity demand and the variation of energy efficiency is the main source of reducing electricity consumption, and the industrial structure adjustment plays a subordinate role in the reduction of electricity consumption; five high energy-consuming industrial sub-sectors within 39 industrial sub-sectors are the main sources leading to the growth of electricity consumption. Finally, the forecasted annual average growth rate of industrial electricity consumption in China during the 12th Five Year Plan period is 7.78%.关键词
对数平均迪式指数法/工业电力需求/节能减排Key words
logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI)/industrial electricity demand/ energy saving and emission reduction分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
徐莉,唐亮..应用对数平均迪式指数法的中国工业电力需求增长率分析[J].电网技术,2012,36(12):236-241,6.基金项目
教育部中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(2012105010203). （2012105010203）
