电网技术2013，Vol.37Issue(2)：405-410,6.
基于马尔科夫链的电力系统运行可靠性快速评估
Markov Chain-Based Rapid Assessment on Operational Reliability of Power Grid
摘要
Abstract
In view of the defects in power system reliability analysis that Monte Carlo simulation needs a lot of computational resources and it converges slowly, from the viewpoint of operation and based on Markov chain and under the premise that equipment failure rate complies with exponential distribution characteristics, a model, by which fast analytical analysis on power system operation reliability can be carried out, is proposed. The core of the proposed model lies in following aspects: firstly, a criterion to dividing power system operating conditions into three categories, which can be easily implemented in engineering practice, as well as corresponding state space transition expression are proposed; secondly, based on historical operation data or simulation data of power system, a Markov state transition probability matrix equivalent to power system operation is attained; thirdly, on this basis utilizing state transition probability matrix and current power system operating condition, such reliability indices for some time to come as operation state transition probability, steady state probability and mean time to first failure of power system can be rapidly analyzed to implement rapid assessment of power system operation reliability. Simulation results of RBTS-BUS6 system prove the Markov property of power system state transition and the effectiveness of this research.关键词
马尔科夫链/电力系统/可靠性评估/可靠性预测Key words
Markov chain/ power system/ reliability assessment/ reliability prediction分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
王勇,韩学山,丁颖,绳洁..基于马尔科夫链的电力系统运行可靠性快速评估[J].电网技术,2013,37(2):405-410,6.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(51077087,51007047). （51077087,51007047）
