辐射防护2013，Vol.33Issue(1)：37-45,9.
福岛核事故放射性物质释放对周边地区的概率影响分析
Probability Impact Analysis of Potential Radioactive Release from Fukushima Accident to Surrounding Areas
摘要
Abstract
This paper simulated the potential impact of radioactive material from the Fukushima accident to the surrounding areas with China as an area of special concern. Using the five-year meteorological data in Spring during 2004—2008 as input, the forward 3D trajectories started 8 times a day at 50 m high
above four simulated releasing points, which were ± 0. 2° latitude and longitude centering around the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant was calculated with an interval of 3 h and a trajectory length of 5 d. By means of cluster analysis to results of trajectory calculation, the atmospheric transport pathways of all the 14 720 trajectories derived were obtained that enabled the following statistical analysis to the frequency of radioactive material in reaching interest region as well the probability field of atmospheric transport and rapid migration. The results showed a relatively low frequency in Spring with its peak appeared in May. For instance the frequency of radioactive material arriving in Harbin in May is 0. 9% , Shanghai 0.6% , Taiwan 0. 2% , and Beijing 0. 1% with an average migration time of 3. 2 d, 4. 2 d, 4. 5 d and 4. 6 d respectively. The lowest frequency showed in March, the frequency of radioactive material arriving in Taiwan in March is merely 0. 1% , for Harbin is 0. 1% and 0 for the rest of areas concerned in our country. The probability field of atmospheric transport and rapid migration from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant are consistent with the impact analysis results of trajectories. Meanwhile, the impact of probability field to other regions can be observed from the results.关键词
福岛核事故/轨迹/聚类分析/大气迁移Key words
Fukushima Accident/ trajectory/ cluster analysis/ atmospheric transport分类
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张俊芳,姚仁太,徐向军..福岛核事故放射性物质释放对周边地区的概率影响分析[J].辐射防护,2013,33(1):37-45,9.
