干旱区地理2012，Vol.35Issue(6)：1012-1020,9.
农用地集约利用变化与经济增长的动态计量分析——以新疆拜城县为例
Dynamic econometric analysis of interaction between agricultural land intensive utilization and economic growth: a case of Baicheng County
摘要
Abstract
Measuring and calculating the agricultural land use intensity, and studying the variation and its interaction with economic growth of agricultural land intensive utilization in Baicheng County of Xinjiang, is of great benefit for reasonable agricultural land use, optimization of land use efficiency, boosting agricultural land utilization transition from extensive to intensive use, guarantee of the supply and safety of grain production, and providing recommendations for policy formulation. The index system of agricultural land use intensity of Baicheng County was constructed, which associates with its actual facts and the implication of land use intensity. Based on it, the entropy method was used to calculate the weights of each index and the comprehensive index method was employed to calculate the agricultural land use intensity, land investment degree, land utilizing intensity, land utilizing efficiency and land sustainable degree, after that their time-sequence change characteristics was analyzed. Then some e-conometric methods such as the co-integration, Granger causality tests, impulse response function and variance decomposition were used to analyze relevant data. The implications from the study are as follows: (1) the level of agricultural land intensive utilization in Baicheng County has been gradually increasing since the reform period, but land investment degree, land utilizing intensity, land utilizing efficiency and land sustainable degree exhibit different trends. In the future of agricultural land use, attention should pay to following items; grain yield increase, harmonious relations between population, food and cultivated land, increasing funding, labor, fertilizer, mechanical power and other aspects of agricultural land intensive use level. (2) The econometric results reveal that there are long-term relationships between indices of agricultural land intensive utilization level and the comprehensive index of per capita net income of farmers. Also, the comprehensive indices of agricultural land intensive utilization is the Granger causality to the comprehensive level of the peasant per capita income, however the comprehensive level of the peasant per capita income is not the Granger causality to the comprehensive indices of agricultural land intensive utilization level. During the increase of the agricultural land intensive utilization level, the indices of peasant per capita income decreased in the first three periods and then increasing, and the improving change tendency is continuous.关键词
农用地集约利用/经济增长/协整检验/格兰杰因果检验/脉冲响应函数/方差分解Key words
agricultural land intensive utilization/ economic growth/ co-integration/ Granger causality/ impulse response/ variance decomposition分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
汪菲,杨德刚,王长建,刘云同,张文彪..农用地集约利用变化与经济增长的动态计量分析——以新疆拜城县为例[J].干旱区地理,2012,35(6):1012-1020,9.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(40971108) （40971108）
中国科学院"西部博士资助项目"(XBBS200803) （XBBS200803）
新疆师范大学优秀青年教师科研启动项目(XJNU0704) （XJNU0704）
