农业机械学报2013，Vol.44Issue(2)：109-116,8.DOI:10.6041/j.issn.1000-1298.2013.02.021
基于SARIMA模型和条件植被温度指数的干旱预测
Drought Forecasts Based on SARIMA Models and Vegetation Temperature Condition Index
摘要
Abstract
Based on the time series of drought monitoring results of vegetation temperature condition index ( VTCI) , the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average ( SARIMA) models were applied to forecast agricultural droughts in the Guanzhong plain of China. The droughts were forecasted from early April to late May, 2009, and there were six step-1 forecasting results, six step-2 forecasting results and six step-3 forecasting results. The results show that the forecasting accuracies of the SARIMA models are gradually decreased with the increase of the forecasting steps. The distributions of absolute errors of the six step-1 forecasting results were basically in unimodal distributions and the errors were mainly in the range from -0. 2 to 0. 2. The six step-2 absolute errors were in bimodal distributions, and the errors of the step-3 were more scattered and larger. After analysis of drought spatial and temporal distributions in the Guanzhong plain, the droughts have obvious regional characteristics, and the forecasting drought spatial of step-1 and step-2 and temporal distributions are consistently better to the monitoring ones. The step-3 forecasting results have more uncertainties. The SARIMA model can be used for drought forecasting of step-1 and step-2 in the Guanzhong plain.关键词
关中平原/干旱预测/条件植被温度指数/季节性求和自回归移动平均模型Key words
Guanzhong plain Drought forecast Vegetation temperature condition index Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
田苗,王鹏新,韩萍,张树誉..基于SARIMA模型和条件植被温度指数的干旱预测[J].农业机械学报,2013,44(2):109-116,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(41071235、40871159)、"十二五"国家科技支撑计划资助项目(2012BAH29B03)和高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金资助项目(20100008110031) （41071235、40871159）
