气象学报2012，Vol.70Issue(5)：1098-1106,9.
华中区域气温变化的模拟评估及未来情景预估
Simulative evaluation and projection of air temperatures over central China in the SRES scenarios
摘要
Abstract
Using the multimodel data in Phase 3 of the WCRP's Coupled Model Project, the average air temperatures over central China in 2011 - 2100 was simulated based on the SRES A2, A1B and Bl scenarios, and their variation characteristics were analysised. In summary, the simulations could better reflect the linear trends of the temperatures. The simulated warming rate in winter was slightly higher than in summer, while the change trend in the rate of summer warming was opposite to that in the observation sequence. The spatial distribution of the linear trends could be well simulated but with the values higher than observations. Compared with the average over the period from 1961 to 1990, the warming increment in the 21st century was 3. 7 ℃ for A2, 3. 4℃ for A1B and 2. 0 ℃ for Bl, respectively. Before the mid-21st century, the warming increment in summer was higher than in winter, followed by the bigger increment in winter than in summer until the end of the 21st century with the ones in spring and in autumn being consistent for the two periods.关键词
CMIP数据/IPCC/华中地区/气温Key words
CMIP data/IPCC/Central China/Air temperature分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
任永建,万素琴,肖莺,刘敏,孙善磊..华中区域气温变化的模拟评估及未来情景预估[J].气象学报,2012,70(5):1098-1106,9.基金项目
中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF-2010-04). （CCSF-2010-04）
