热带气象学报2012，Vol.28Issue(4)：564-568,5.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1004-4965.2012.04.016
珠三角地区前汛期强对流潜势预报方法研究
STUDY ON A FORECASTING METHOD FOR SEVERE CONVECTIVE WEATHER POTENTIAL IN THE ANNUALLY FIRST RAINING SEASON OF THE PEARL RIVER DELTA
摘要
Abstract
Based on radiosonde data in the annually first raining seasons from 2004 to 2006, some indices and parameters, including Integral Q, K-index, Microburst-Day Potential Index (MDPI), SWISS00 index, and variables often analyzed for forecasting severe thunderstorms, were selected as predictors. Through analyzing the spatial distributions and the binary logistic regressions of the indices, estimated parameters of the predictors and a convective weather diagnostic prediction equation were established to make 12-h severe weather forecasts for the Pearl River Delta in Guangdong Province. The equation was tested and verified with historical data between March and June from 2003 to 2006. The results indicated that the accuracy of severe convective weather forecast was 77.5% if the equation's output was greater than 0.9, whereas the probability of severe weather development was only 3.8% when the output was less than 0.5. This method can be used as a very short-range forecasting tool for severe convective weather.关键词
物理量/二值Logistic回归分析/统计分析/潜势预报Key words
indices/binary logistic regression analysis/statistical analysis/severe convective weather potential分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
庞古乾,伍志方,叶爱芬,刘运策,李怀宇,孙广凤..珠三角地区前汛期强对流潜势预报方法研究[J].热带气象学报,2012,28(4):564-568,5.基金项目
广东省科技计划项目"珠江三角洲中小尺度气象灾害监测预警技术研究" （）
中国气象局华南区域气象中心气象业务系统开放实验室(2011A030200015) （2011A030200015）
国家自然科学基金(410750040) （410750040）
广东省科技计划项目"东江流域(水库)旱涝灾害监测与预报系统" （水库）
中国气象局气象关键技术集成与应用重点项目(CAMGJ2012Z02)共同资助 （CAMGJ2012Z02）
