水利水电技术2013，Vol.44Issue(1)：16-19,4.
金沙江下游径流丰枯频率分析
Study on analysis of frequency of higher and lower runoff in Lower Jinshajiang River
摘要
Abstract
Based on the data of the annual runoff from 1953 to 2004 obtained at Xiaodeshi Hydrological Station located at the Mid Jinshajiang River and the monthly mean precipitation data from 1953 to 2004 got from Yibin Hydrological Station, the frequency of higher and lower runoff in Lower Jinshajiang River is analyzed herein with the joint distribution of both the precipitation and runoff constructed with Copula function. The result shows that the precipitations and runoffs within all the quarters are accorded with the Person type Ⅲ distribution and the joint distributions of the precipitations and runoffs within all the quarters can be better fitted by Clayton Copula function; while the frequencies of abundant water of all the quarters are 14. 08%、18. 11% ? 12. 32% 、13. 01% respectively and the corresponding dry frequencies are 15. 51%、18. 78%、14. 16%、15. 48% respectively. The study mentioned above can not only lay a scientific basis for the reasonable allocation and control of the water resources of the Lower Jinshajiang River, but can also build a foundation for the further risk assessment.关键词
皮尔逊Ⅲ分布/Copula函数/径流/降水/丰枯频率/金沙江下游Key words
Pearson Ⅲ distribution/ Copula function/ runoff/ precipitation/ frequency of higher and lower runoff/ Lower Jinshajiang River分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
张静,倪长健,袁淑杰,任照环,王杰..金沙江下游径流丰枯频率分析[J].水利水电技术,2013,44(1):16-19,4.基金项目
公益性行业(气象)科研专项"多时间尺度干旱监测与预警、评估技术研究"(GYHY201006023). （气象）
