同济大学学报（自然科学版）2013，Vol.41Issue(2)：186-190,202,6.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.0253-374x.2013.02.005
盾构法施工风险的多态贝叶斯网络模型分析
Risk Analysis of Shield Construction by Polymorphic Bayesian Networks Model
周健 1王红卫 2吴邵海1
作者信息
- 1. 同济大学土木工程学院,上海200092
- 2. 同济大学岩土及地下工程教育部重点实验室,上海200092
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
Subway tunnel is characterzed by a large-scale investment, many risk factors, large social impact, which determines the need of risk management during the construction. In view of the fuzziness of risks, it is difficult to use an accurate probability or a probability interval to describe risks. Therefore, shield excavation risks are proposed to be analyzed by multiple probability intervals. Based on the five probability intervals which divide risk probabilities into five ranks in the subway and underground engineering, a risk factor questionnaire is designed, and the probability distributions of probability ranks about shield construction risk
factors can be figured out through expert survey method. According to the questionnaire, Bayesian Networks are applied to establishing a multi-state system to analyze the probability distributions. The multi-state system is used in the risk assessment of a subway tunnel, the probability rank of the project is figured out and at the corresponding probability rank, such risk factors as poor seal in the portals, axis deviation which causes segment failure and the damage, destruction of sealing material are considered as the key control objects.关键词
盾构法施工/贝叶斯网络/风险概率等级/多态系统Key words
shield construction/ Bayesian Networks/ risk probability rank/ multi-state system
分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
周健,王红卫,吴邵海..盾构法施工风险的多态贝叶斯网络模型分析[J].同济大学学报（自然科学版）,2013,41(2):186-190,202,6.
