土木工程与管理学报2012，Vol.29Issue(4)：84-88,5.
建筑业发展现状分析与趋势预测
Present Situation Analysis and Development Trend Forecast of Construction Industry
摘要
Abstract
The construction industry is the mainstay industry of national economy, and it is necessary to review the situation of China construction industry and to make the development trend forecast of China construction industry, which is useful to guide China construction industry and the macro-economic control. According to the scale of the investment in fixed assets and the result of difference method, the author makes a brief description of current China construction industry. Because of the 4 billion investment plan, enormous changes have taken place in China construction industry in the period of the eleventh five-year plan. This paper is to explore the use of gray model and time series analysis in forecasting the output and the added value of China construction industry in the period of the twelfth five-year plan, based on the data covering 2001 to 2010. The predictive value of the output and the added value of 2010 China construction industry by gray model is closer to the actual value than time series analysis. Both of forecasting methods show that China construction industry will get a rapid growth in the period of the twelfth five-year plan. In order to obtain sustainable development, the construction industry should further adjust industrial structure and strengthen the leading function of technical progress and innovation.关键词
建筑业/发展趋势/灰色模型/时间序列分析/差分法Key words
construction industry/development trend/difference method/gray model/time series analysis分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
唐菁菁,李志欣,梁文钊,赵挺生..建筑业发展现状分析与趋势预测[J].土木工程与管理学报,2012,29(4):84-88,5.基金项目
住建部科学技术项目计划(2012-R3-2) （2012-R3-2）
华中科技大学自主创新基金(2011TS168) （2011TS168）
