现代电力2012，Vol.29Issue(6)：56-60,5.
基于系统动力学的电动汽车与燃油汽车预测仿真
The Prediction and Simulation of Electric Vehicles and Fule Vehicles Based on System Dynamics
摘要
Abstract
Due to the different development and demands for electric vehicles and fuel vehicles in different periods of time, a dynamics research method based on system dynamics model is proposed. At first, based on the theory of system dynamics, the relationship between electric vehicles and fuel vehicles is analyzed by considering such factors as market maximum capacity, the growth rate, and the competition coefficients of both kinds of vehicles. Then the system dynamics models of electric vehicles and fuel vehicles are built, and the simulation and analysis on their future amounts of vehicle in China are carried out. The prediction results show that the amount of electric vehicles will be more than that of fuel vehicles after 40 years, and it will reach above 150 million.关键词
系统动力学/电动汽车/燃油汽车/仿真/预测Key words
system dynamics/ electric vehicles/ fuel vehicles/ simulation/ prediction分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
曾鸣,李娜,王涛,贾晓希..基于系统动力学的电动汽车与燃油汽车预测仿真[J].现代电力,2012,29(6):56-60,5.基金项目
教育部博士点基金资助项目(20080079007) （20080079007）
