岩土力学2012，Vol.33Issue(12)：3721-3728,8.
多随机因素作用下储气库套管运行期安全性分析
Safety analysis of casing of gas storage influenced by stochastic factors during operation period
摘要
Abstract
Casing is a weak part of underground gas storage during its operation period, which will be influenced by kinds of stochastic factors. In this paper, failure modes and failure criterions of casing and cement sheath are discussed firstly; then a three dimensional calculation model including casing, cement sheath and wall rock is established based on Jintan underground gas storage in Jiangshu province. Stochastic characters of geometrical size, load and material parameters of the casing system are analyzed, which are applied to the safety analysis. Then, failure probability and sensitive factors are calculated based on Monte Carlo method. At last, the simulation result is proved by a three dimensional geological model experiment. The research results indicate that the influences of the randomness responding to factors on casing reliability are different. Thickness of casing, inner diameter of casing, operation pressure and thickness of cement sheath are sensitive factors of casing-cement and wall rock system. Moreover, different factors have different effects on reliability. The reliability of casing decreases as storage pressure decreasing. And the reliability of cement sheath decreases as storage pressure increasing. More attention must be paid because failure probabilities of casing are high when the gas pressures of storage are extremely high or low. The gas extraction rates determined by the volume convergence law of the caverns will not influence the safety of casing-cement and wall rock system.关键词
地下储库/套管-水泥环-围岩系统/随机因素/蒙特卡罗方法/失效概率Key words
underground gas storage/ casing-cement and wall rock system/ stochastic factor/ Monte Carlo method/ failure probability分类
能源科技引用本文复制引用
刘健,宋娟,张凤伟,张强勇,段抗,李术才..多随机因素作用下储气库套管运行期安全性分析[J].岩土力学,2012,33(12):3721-3728,8.基金项目
国家重点基础研究发展规划(973)项目(No.2009CB724607) （973）
国家自然科学基金资助项目(No.41172267,No.41172268) （No.41172267,No.41172268）
山东省自然科学基金资助项目(No.ZR2011EEM004) （No.ZR2011EEM004）
山东大学自主创新基金资助项目(No.2010TS044). （No.2010TS044）
