中国电机工程学报2013，Vol.33Issue(1)：56-62,前插7,8.
一种适用于可靠性评估的电网设备时变停运模型
A New Time-varying Component Outage Model for Power System Reliability Analysis
摘要
Abstract
It is a fundamental work to develop accurate component outage model for reliability analysis in power system. The traditional outage model cannot reflect the impact of the time-varying factors in the operating conditions and the repair after failure. In this paper, a staircase function is used to approximate the deterioration failure rate curve and a renewal process based model is proposed to estimate time-varying failure probabilities. The proposed time-varying outage model can both reflect the effects on failure rate caused by both components' deterioration and repair activities in long terms. An example of a real transformer shows that the proposed model can precisely predict life cumulative probability distribution and steady state of availability. Compared to traditional constant model, the model proposed in this paper is more accurate and practical.关键词
电网设备/可靠性评估/老化故障率/更新过程/停运模型Key words
power equipment/ reliability analysis/ deterioration failure rate/ renewal process/ outage model分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
汲国强,张伯明,吴文传,孙宏斌,宁辽逸..一种适用于可靠性评估的电网设备时变停运模型[J].中国电机工程学报,2013,33(1):56-62,前插7,8.基金项目
国家863高技术基金项目(2011AA05A118) （2011AA05A118）
国家自然科学基金项目(51177080) （51177080）
教育新世纪优秀人才支持计划(NCET-11-0281). （NCET-11-0281）
