中国人口·资源与环境2013，Vol.23Issue(1)：41-48,8.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-2104.2013.01.006
基于CDECGE模型的中国能源需求情景分析
Analysis of China' s Primary Energy Demand Scenarios Based on the CDECGE Model
摘要
Abstract
In response to China' s future economic and social development goals, this paper explored three economic development scenarios; the baseline scenario, the enhanced, low-carbon scenario, and the extensive economic growth scenario. The paper analysed China' s primary energy demand, CO2 emissions trends, and energy consumption structure under different policies, and the model can be an effective policy tool for analysing China' s future energy security situation and controlling China' s greenhouse gas emissions. A dynamic energy computable general equilibrium ( CGE) model, which was based on the Monash model, was used to evaluate China' s energy economy (CDECGE Model) . The investigation results show that due to the current economic growth patterns and the economic growth rate, without new policy measures. However, under appropriate low-carbon policies, the primary energy demand will be decreased to 4. 55 billion tons of standard coal equivalents, and the emissions in 2020 will be 1. 635 metric tons of carbon dioxide per ten thousand Yuan, decreasing emissions by 45% from the 2005 emissions level. The conclusions show that a carbon tax will reduce the demand for fossil fuels and decrease carbon dioxide emissions, transform China to a low-carbon society and achieve the carbon dioxide emissions reduction target by 2020. Therefore, many energy related policies can be adopted, such as improving the industrial structure and implementing a carbon tax policy, to slow the rapid growth of energy demand, optimise the energy structure, promote restructuring of economy, and achieve objectives of emissions reduction. These policies can help to protect the security of the energy supply and control greenhouse gas emissions.关键词
中国能源经济/动态可计算一般均衡模型/经济发展情景/一次能源需求量/CO2排放强度Key words
China' s energy economy/ dynamic computable general equilibrium model/ economic development scenarios/ primary energy demand/ carbon dioxide emissions intensity分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
毕清华,范英,蔡圣华,夏炎..基于CDECGE模型的中国能源需求情景分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2013,23(1):41-48,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目"面向全球资源的石油资源经济安全管理理论与实证研究"(编号:71133005),"能源-环境-经济复杂系统中的预测理论方法与应用"(编号:70825001),"我国统一碳市场建立的条件、机制设计与社会经济分析"(编号:71210005). （编号:71133005）
