水利学报2012，Vol.43Issue(11)：1312-1321,10.
气候变化及人类活动对东江流域径流影响的贡献分解研究
Identifying the quantitative effect of climate change and human activity on runoff in the Dongjiang River basin
摘要
Abstract
Based on the current land use maps in two periods (1980 year and 2000 year) and hydro-meteorological data of main stations in the Dongjiang River basin during 1956-2009 years, three sub-basins which land use had changed from little to great were selected as case study, an method to identify the quantitative effect of climate change and human activity on runoff was developed. The runoff was simulated with SCS monthly model to find the impact of climate change and human activity on runoff. The results show that: (1) since 1980 to 2000 in the Dongjiang River basin, land use had been changed significantly, and it can be shown in the characteristic of the spatial distribution of the CN contour line in two periods (1980 year and 2000 year); (2) the application of the SCS monthly model in three basins can meet the required precision, and the more significant land use change in each sub-basin, the more change on that of runoff; (3) compared to reference period (1970-1978), the runoff decreased or increased more or less to a different extent during the period of 1980-2000. All sub-basins show a result that impacts due to climate change and human activity were half and half. As one of the factors that made the runoff change, land use change could increase the runoff to the extents of 19.54%, 24.11%, and 29.94 in Yuecheng, Sbuntian, and Lantang sub-basins respectively.关键词
气候变化/人类活动/土地利用变化/径流/东江流域Key words
climate change/human activity/land use change/runoff/dongjiang basin分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
林凯荣,何艳虎,陈晓宏..气候变化及人类活动对东江流域径流影响的贡献分解研究[J].水利学报,2012,43(11):1312-1321,10.基金项目
基金项目：国家自然科学基金项目 （）
国家重点基础研究发展计划项目（973项目） （）
水利部公益性行业专项 （）
广东省自然科学基金 （）
广州市珠江科技新星专项资助 （）
