水土保持通报2012，Vol.32Issue(6)：279-285,7.
生态赤字影响因素的定量分析及其动态预测研究——以江苏省为例
Influencing Factors of Ecological Deficit and Its Dynamic Prediction——A Case Study of Jiangsu Province
摘要
Abstract
Taking Jiangsu Province as an example,an index system of social-economic system was established based on the analysis on the time series of ecological deficit(ED) from 1985 to 2009.An ED dynamic prediction model was then developed using the conjunction of STIRAPT model,VIP value and the partial least square regression(PLS) method.The results demonstrated that the ED of Jiangsu in the plan period of "the 12th five-year plan" could increase from 1.156 1×108 hm2 in 2009 to 1.418 4×108 hm2 in 2015.ED per capita could also increase from 1.496 7 hm2 to 1.768 8 hm2 in the same time period,significantly higher than the global level(0.400 0 hm2).The classical environmental Kuznets curve(EKC) hypothesis could not explain well in the ED of Jiangsu Province.The VIP values showed that the many factors exerted strong influences,in an descending order of significance on ED as: ratios of primary and secondary industry in GDPtotal cultivated areaGDP per capitastudent to teacher ratio in higher educationbed number in health care unitsvolume of goods transportationtotal population.Based on these analyses,recommendations including transforming economic growth pattern,increasing total cultivated area,controlling the volume of goods transportation,and restraining rapid population growth,were proposed to slow down the increment of ED and to achieve the long-term development goals in Jiangsu Province.关键词
生态赤字/动态预测/偏最小二乘（PLS）/VIP值Key words
ecological deficit(ED)/dynamic prediction/partial least square(PLS)/VIP value分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
肖思思,余颖斐,黄贤金,陈燕..生态赤字影响因素的定量分析及其动态预测研究——以江苏省为例[J].水土保持通报,2012,32(6):279-285,7.基金项目
国土资源部公益性行业科研专项经费项目“土地利用规划的碳排放效应与调控研究” （）
江苏省环保科技基金项目 （）
江苏大学高级专业人才科研启动基金项目 （）
江苏大学学生科研立项 （）
