水力发电学报2013，Vol.32Issue(1)：44-49,62,7.
基于地面雨情信息的长江三峡区间洪水预报研究
Flood forecast for Three Gorges region of the Yangtze based on ground-observed rainfall
摘要
Abstract
Flood generated in the Three Gorges region (TGR) of the Yangtze impacts fast and significantly on the operation of Three Gorges reservoir, and it offers critical boundary conditions for flood forecast at the dam site. We studied the short-term forecast of this flood with a physically-based distributed model ( GBHM) and a conceptual model (Xin' anjiang model) separately. These models were calibrated and validated using the daily runoff and ground-observed rainfall from 2004 to 2007, and the forecasts were also on a daily time scale. The results show that both models capture the daily flood process with good accuracy, and the GBHM model is slightly better. To overcome the limitation of hourly runoff data available, calibration of the model parameters was maintained on a daily time scale, while an hourly time scale was adopted for the forecasts. These hourly forecasts reveal that the Xin'anjiang model shows a dramatic decrease in accuracy, while the GBHM model can preserve certain accuracy in calculations of total volume and time history of runoff. Thus, the potential of physically-based distributed model in application to flood forecast for the Three Gorges region are demonstrated.关键词
水文学/短期洪水预报/地面观测雨量/GBHM模型/新安江模型Key words
hydrology/ flood forecast/ ground-observed rainfall/ GBHM model/ Xin'anjiang model分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
李哲,杨大文,田富强..基于地面雨情信息的长江三峡区间洪水预报研究[J].水力发电学报,2013,32(1):44-49,62,7.基金项目
水利部创业公益项目(201001004,201101004) （201001004,201101004）
水沙科学与水利水电工程国家重点实验室与灾害天气国家重点实验室联合资助项目 （）
