水土保持研究2013，Vol.20Issue(1)：121-125,5.
基于Markov模型的植被覆盖动态变化预测研究
Research on Prediction of Dynamic Change in Vegetation Coverage Based on Markov Model
摘要
Abstract
Dynamically monitoring the vegetation change is important in the research of economical environment of the arid area oasis. The delta oasis of Weigan and Kuqa rivers was selected as the research area, and the dynamically change of the vegetation coverage was quantitatively analyzed by using the remote sensing image data. At the same time, the prediction of the dynamically change of the vegetation coverage in the next 25 a of the research area was made by using the Markov Model over the past years. The results show that research area presented a fluctuating decrease trend during the recent 21 years . From the year 1989 to 2001, the area of high coverage vegetation reduced from 3. 804×105 hm2 to 2. 711×105 hrn2, and the very low coverage vegetation increased from 6. 410×104 hm2 to 6. 666×104 hm2, low coverage vegetation increased from 1. 900×105 hm2 to 1. 953×105 hm2, mid coverage vegetation changed very little. The result of the prediction of the next 25 years showed mid coverage vegetation, the area and the percentage of high coverage vegetation represented the decrease trend, however the mid coverage vegetation, low coverage vegetation and the very low coverage vegetation presented the increase trend. All these results showed that oasis presented degradation of the overall trend. The research results can provide a theoretical support for vegetation restoration and salinization, desertification of the research area.关键词
遥感/归一化植被指数(NDVI)/植被覆盖度/Markov预测模型Key words
remote sensing/ normalized difference vegetation index/ vegetation coverage/ Markov prediction model分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
玛丽艳姑丽·阿西穆,塔西甫拉提·特依拜,买买提·沙吾提,张飞..基于Markov模型的植被覆盖动态变化预测研究[J].水土保持研究,2013,20(1):121-125,5.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(40961025,40901163) （40961025,40901163）
新疆高校科研计划青年教师科研项目(XJEDU2011S07) （XJEDU2011S07）
资源与环境信息系统国家重点实验室开放课题(2010kf0003sa) （2010kf0003sa）
