应用生态学报2012，Vol.23Issue(11)：3157-3163,7.
气候变化背景下黑龙江大兴安岭林区夏季火险变化趋势
Change trends of summer fire danger in Great Xing' an Mountains forest region of Heilongjiang Province, Northeast China under climate change
摘要
Abstract
By using Delta and WGEN downscaling methods and Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index , this paper analyzed the variation characteristics of summer fire in Great Xing' an Mountains forest region of Heilongjiang Province in 1966-2010, estimated the change trends of the summer fire danger in 2010-2099, compared the differences of the forest fire in summer, spring, and autumn , and proposed the prevention and control strategies of the summer fire based on the fire environment. Under the background of climate wanning, the summer forest fire in the region in 2000-2010 showed a high incidence trend. In foreseeable future, the summer forest fire across the region in 2010-2099, as compared to that in the baseline period 1961-1990, would be increased by 34% , and the increment would be obviously greater than that of spring and autumn fire. Relative to that in 1961-1990, the summer fire in 2010-2099 under both SRES A2a and SRES B2a scenarios would have an increasing trend, and, with the lapse of time, the trend would be more evident, and the area with high summer fire would become wider and wider. Under the scenario of SRES A2a, the summer fire by the end of the 21st century would be doubled, as compared to that in 1961 — 1990, and the area with high summer fire would be across the region. In the characteristics of fire source, attributes of forest fuel, and fire weather conditions, the summer forest fire was different from the spring and autumn forest fire, and thus, the management of fire source and forest fuel load as well as the forest fire forecast ( mid-long term forecast in particular) in the region should be strengthened to control the summer forest fire.关键词
大兴安岭/森林火灾/气候变化/夏季火Key words
Great Xing'an Mountains/ fire danger/ climate change/ summer fire分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
杨光,舒立福,邸雪颖..气候变化背景下黑龙江大兴安岭林区夏季火险变化趋势[J].应用生态学报,2012,23(11):3157-3163,7.基金项目
中央高校基本科研业务费专项(DL12BA07)和国家林业公益性行业科研专项(200804002)资助. （DL12BA07）
