安徽农业科学2013，Vol.41Issue(4)：1654-1656,1659,4.
鹤壁市最高气温分布拟合及理论极值推算
The Simulation of Highest Temperature Distribution and Calculation on Extreme Temperature in Hebi City
摘要
Abstract
By using Gumbel distribution, pearson - IHdistribution and Weibull distribution, fitting test was conducted on highest temperature in Hebi City during 1965 -2004. The results showed Gumbel distribution is better. By using Gumbel distribution, the extreme highest temperature may be 43. 2, 43.8 ℃ in the future 50a and 80a; By using the double exponential smoothing method, it was concluded that the highest temperature annual variation in Hebi City shows decreasing trend. The highest temperature variation trend first increased then decreased a-round 1981, while the variation trend first decreased then increased around 1991. Since 1980s'the highest temperature in Hebi City increased with a fluctuation, indicating the occurrence probability of extreme high temperature events increased. Annual highest temperature peak value mainly concentrated in June and July.关键词
极值分布/最高气温/特征/理论估算/鹤壁市Key words
Extreme value distribution/ Maximum temperature/ Feature/ Estimation in theory/ Hebi City分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
张心令..鹤壁市最高气温分布拟合及理论极值推算[J].安徽农业科学,2013,41(4):1654-1656,1659,4.
