电力系统自动化2013，Vol.37Issue(5)：29-37,9.DOI:10.7500/AEPS201207070
基于马尔可夫链的电力系统连锁故障预测
A Markov Chain Based Model for Forecasting Power System Cascading Failures
摘要
Abstract
Several blackouts and large-area outages around the globe were caused by cascading failures in the past several years. The ability to forecast cascading failures has become one of the most important research topics in power systems. The existing methods of forecasting cascading failures do not systematically and comprehensively address some important influencing factors such as the network topology, the relevance between two consecutive failures, and the uncertainties in the system operations. Given this background, based on the initial failure probabilities of lines and the transition probability between two consecutive failures, a Markov chain based model for forecasting cascading failures is presented. In this model, the transferring power flow, malfunctions of protective relays and circuit breakers, and the failure rates of components are considered. At first, the next failure is forecasted by the Markov chain based method, and the set of possible failures is identified, followed by the paths of cascading failures with the time sequence determined. Then, three criteria used to evaluate the vulnerability of follow-up failures are presented, and employed to monitor and quickly control possible cascading failures. Finally, the IEEE 10-unit 39-bus system is used for demonstrating the essential features of the developed model and method. This work is supported by National Key Technology Research and Development Program of China (No. 2011BAA07B02) and a Key Project from China Southern Power Grid Corporation (No. K-ZB2011-012, No. K201029.2).关键词
连锁故障/马尔可夫链模型/潮流转移/不确定性/脆弱性Key words
cascading failures/ Markov chain model/ power flow transfer/ uncertainty/ vulnerability引用本文复制引用
吴文可,文福拴,薛禹胜,赵旋宇,胡荣..基于马尔可夫链的电力系统连锁故障预测[J].电力系统自动化,2013,37(5):29-37,9.基金项目
国家科技支撑计划资助项目(2011BAA07B02) （2011BAA07B02）
南方电网公司重点科技项目(K-ZB2011-012,K201029.2). （K-ZB2011-012,K201029.2）
