水科学进展2013，Vol.24Issue(2)：184-189,6.
利用反向法评价气候变化下的水资源系统风险
An inverse approach to evaluate the risk of water resouces under climate change
摘要
Abstract
A new method to evaluate the risk of water resources under climate change is proposed. The method is mainly comprised of three steps: ① build a dynamic model representing the water resources system; ② do stochastic analysis and then build a climate response function which allows linking the climate states to the performance indicator of the water resources system; ③ the climate information of GCMs is tailed to evaluate the risk. Finally, this method is applied to evaluate the climate change induced risk in Quabbin Reservoir, Massachusetts, United of States. Through 36 GCMs in A2 scenario within two periods 2036—2065 and 2066—2095, the results show that the risk with 100% -140% historical net basin supply (NBS) annual standard deviation is between 0.25 and 0.30 in 2036—2065, and between 0. 30 and 0. 45 in 2066—2095.关键词
气候变化/大气环流模式/风险评价/气候响应方程/水资源系统Key words
climate change/general circulation model/risk evaluation/climate response equation/water resources分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
李科,齐晶瑶,王昭阳,冯岩,BROWN Casey..利用反向法评价气候变化下的水资源系统风险[J].水科学进展,2013,24(2):184-189,6.基金项目
国家自然科学资金资助项目(40971026) （40971026）
城市水资源与水环境国家重点实验室开放研究项目(ES201109 HIT) （ES201109 HIT）
