中国人口·资源与环境2013，Vol.23Issue(4)：41-48,8.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-2104.2013.04.009
中国城市化进程与碳排放量关系的实证研究
An Empirical Study on the Relationship Between Urbanization and Carbon Emission in China
摘要
Abstract
In this study, based on the data from 1978 to 2009, the relationship between urbanization rate and carbon emission is analyzed by employing co-integration analysis and Granger causality test. It shows: ①there is a driving relationship between urbanization rate and carbon emission in long run,and the rise of urbanization rate will cause an increase in carbon emission. Every 1% increase in urbanization rate will cause 1. 61% increase in carbon emission. ②If considering high urbanization rate as the sign of modernization in China, to push on urbanization movement in "the great leap forward" style will cause a sharp increase in carbon emission following the increased urbanization rate year by year, and it goes against our goal to achieve low-carbon cities and sustainable development. ③ Except influenced by the current urbanization level, carbon emission is also cumulatively affected by previous urbanization level, namely the previous urbanization level reflects the process of urbanization, and rapid urbanization certainly causes an increase in energy consumption. As coal is the primary source for energy using currently in China, the increase in energy consumption is closely connected with carbon emission. The effect of previous urbanization rate on current carbon emission level is shown by inertia of energy consumption. Therefore, it is considered if continuing tomeasure a nation' s modernization level by its urbanization rate, there will be a great increase in green house gas emission, which has an advers impact on the volume control of carbon emission in the future. China needs to achieve low-carbon urbanization.关键词
城市化/碳排放/协整分析/格兰杰因果检验/低碳发展Key words
urbanization/ carbon emission/ co-integration analysis/ Granger causality test/ low-carbon development分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
周葵,戴小文..中国城市化进程与碳排放量关系的实证研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2013,23(4):41-48,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目"人的意识与行为的模型化及其在中国城乡设施优化配置中的应用研究"(编号:71273213) （编号:71273213）
教育部人文社会科学研究项目"统筹城乡发展与低碳经济背景下废弃物处理设施的优化配置研究"(编号:10XJC630015) （编号:10XJC630015）
国家社科基金项目"西部地区低碳经济发展模式与机制研究"(编号:11BJL061) （编号:11BJL061）
西南财经大学"211工程"项目. （）
