草业学报2013，Vol.22Issue(2)：62-70,9.
基于MaxEnt的麦田恶性杂草节节麦的潜在分布区预测
Potential distribution of Tausch's goatgrass (Aegilops tauschii) in both China and the rest of the world as predicted by MaxEnt
摘要
Abstract
Tausch's goatgrass (Aegilops tauschii) is a serious weed worldwide. Determination of the potential geographical distribution of Tausch's goatgrass is an important factor for effectively controlling the spreading of this weed. The potential distribution of Tausch's goatgrass in China and in the rest of the world were predicted using the MaxEnt model. West Asia, the Middle-east, the Mediterranean coast of south-eastern Europe and northern Africa are the main suitable areas for growth of Tausch's goatgrass. In China the suitable areas are mainly distributed in Henan, Hebei, Shandong, southwest of Shanxi, Guanzhong Plain of Shaanxi, the central and south of Ningxia, southeast of Gansu, north of Hubei, Jiangsu and Anhui provinces. The global potential distribution area of Tausch's goatgrass is mainly between 30° to 45° degrees north in the latitude of the main winter wheat producing areas. As the global climate changes, the potential distribution range of Tausch's goatgrass will vary according to different emissions scenarios. With greenhouse gases under the Alb emissions scenario, by 2050, the potential distribution of Tausch's goatgrass will have a tendency to expand, while under A2a and B2a emissions scenarios, the low- and medium-risk areas will tend to decrease, but the high-risk areas will not change significantly.关键词
节节麦/MaxEnt/潜在分布/预测Key words
Aegilops tauschii / MaxEnt/ potential distribution/ prediction分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
房锋,张朝贤,黄红娟,李燕,陈景超,杨龙,魏守辉..基于MaxEnt的麦田恶性杂草节节麦的潜在分布区预测[J].草业学报,2013,22(2):62-70,9.基金项目
"十二五"国家科技支撑计划项目(2012BAD19B02)和公益性行业(农业)科研专项(200903004)资助. （2012BAD19B02）
