北京交通大学学报2013，Vol.37Issue(2)：119-123,128,6.
一种基于灰色马尔科夫的大客流实时预测模型
A grey Markov based on large passenger flow real-time prediction model
摘要
Abstract
In order to analyze and figure out the problem of metro system large passenger flow prediction and warning during the large-scale activities, this paper introduces a novel grey Markov based realtime prediction model for large passengers. Based on the historical origination-destination (OD) passenger data during different large-scale events, this model establishes the grey model for passenger time-series data by grey prediction method at first, and then constructs the improved Markov model, and gray forecasting results are corrected by the prediction error to acquire the final predicting large passenger number at last. The experiments are based on Beijing metro system OD data and standard e-valuation methods, and predict the real-time outbound large passenger number on Wukesong station affected by CBA final matches in Wukesong gymnasium. These results show that the presented model is valid and has good prediction performance for actual large passenger flow.关键词
轨道交通/大客流/灰色模型/马尔科夫模型Key words
metro system/ large passenger flow/ grey model/ Markov model分类
交通工程引用本文复制引用
杨军,侯忠生..一种基于灰色马尔科夫的大客流实时预测模型[J].北京交通大学学报,2013,37(2):119-123,128,6.基金项目
国家科技支撑计划项目资助(2011BAG01B01,2011BAG01B02) （2011BAG01B01,2011BAG01B02）
国家自然科学基金重点项目资助(60834001) （60834001）
