大气科学2013，Vol.37Issue(2)：341-350,10.DOI:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2012.12311
近年来我国短期气候预测中动力相似预测方法研究与应用进展
Improvements to dynamical analogue climate prediction method in China
摘要
Abstract
Because the dynamical climate prediction model is ineffective for skillful forecasting on a weekly to intra-annual scale in the East Asia region, the combination of a dynamical and statistical prediction method has been suggested as an optimal strategy. To realize the technique, a forecasting error correction method by utilizing historical analogue information was developed in China. The current applications show that this new method can significantly improve prediction skill in extended range, monthly, seasonal, and El Ni(n)o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction and hence have encouraged us to further explore operational applications for this method in the future.关键词
短期气候预测/动力相似/预报误差Key words
Short-ranee climate Drediction. Dynamical analogue. Forecasting error分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
李维京,郑志海,孙丞虎..近年来我国短期气候预测中动力相似预测方法研究与应用进展[J].大气科学,2013,37(2):341-350,10.基金项目
国家重点基础研究发展计划2013CB430200、2010CB950501,国家自然科学基金资助项目41105070 （）
