山东科学2013，Vol.26Issue(2)：98-104,111,8.DOI:10.3976/j.issn.1002-4026.2013.02.019
北京市交通承载力预测研究
Prediction of Beijing traffic carrying capacity
摘要
Abstract
The essentials that cause traffic congestion, environmental pollution and resource deficiency lie in too rapid vehicle increase which even exceeds traffic carrying capacity. We employ multivariate analysis to analyze the key factors impacting vehicle number. We also construct a time series prediction model for every key factor, and employ multiple regression analysis to predict vehicle number. We further establish a quantitative calculation model to determine urban traffic carrying capacity based on the analysis of key factors of traffic carrying capacity. The number of motor vehicle will exceed Beijing traffic carrying capacity after 2010 based on the calculation of the present data, and the vehicle growth rate will exceed that of traffic carrying capacity. Some relevant specifications therefore must be drawn to restrict the increase in vehicle number.关键词
交通承载力/时间序列分析/多元回归分析Key words
traffic carrying capacity/analysis of time series/multiple regression analysis分类
交通工程引用本文复制引用
李荣,吴建军..北京市交通承载力预测研究[J].山东科学,2013,26(2):98-104,111,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(71271024) （71271024）
教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划(NCET-12-0764) （NCET-12-0764）
北京市自然科学基金(8102029) （8102029）
教育部高等学校优秀博士学位论文资助项目(201170). （201170）
