水力发电学报2013，Vol.32Issue(2)：48-53,6.
基于MI-ANFIS的中长期水文预报方案优选研究
Optimization selection of mid and long-term hydrologic forecast schemes based on MI-ANFIS
摘要
Abstract
This study adopted mutual information ( MI) to optimize and select forecast schemes for the monthly series of stream flow and rainfall in the Xi River reach from Wuzhou to Gaoyao in Guangdong province, and verified the results using an adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system ( ANFIS). It is concluded that in the case of multiple input variables available, if their generalized correlation indices with the output variable are nearly the same, a forecast model that uses any one of them, will produce similar forecast precision. And ANFIS can be used as effective assistance to mutual information method in selection of forecast schemes to avoid underestimation of forecast precision caused by one-sidedness of mutual information calculations. With such assistance, the forecast model can accommodate the difference in theoretical and actual forecast accuracies caused by non-constant features of concrete hydrological systems.关键词
水文学/中长期水文预报/预报方案优选/互信息法/ANFISKey words
hydrology/ mid and long-term hydrologic forecast/ optimization selection of forecast schemes/ mutual information/ ANFIS分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
路剑飞,陈子燊,王扬圣..基于MI-ANFIS的中长期水文预报方案优选研究[J].水力发电学报,2013,32(2):48-53,6.基金项目
2009年广东省水利创新研究项目(批准号:2009-41) （批准号:2009-41）
