北京中医药大学学报2013，Vol.36Issue(5)：333-336,344,5.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1006-2157.2013.05.0011
北京地区1970-2004年猩红热发病与六气及气象因子的相关性研究
Correlation between attack of scarlet fever and six qi or meteorological factors in Beijing from 1970 to 2004
摘要
Abstract
Objective To discuss the correlation between attack of scarlet fever and six qi or meteorological factors in Beijing.Methods The numbers of patients with scarlet fever and corresponding daily mean meteorological data,including temperature,precipitation,relative humidity,vapor pressure and wind speed,were collected in Beijing area from 1970 to 2004 (totally 35 years).The data was staged according to six qi and give descriptive analysis and correlation analysis for screening the meteorological factors with higher correlation,establishing multiple stepwise regression equation and testing the equation.Results The attack of scarlet fever centered in winter and spring (the first qi,second qi and last qi),and the correlation between it and 13 meteorological factors had statistical significance,including temperature (the first qi,second qi,third qi,fourth qi,fifth qi and last qi),wind speed (the first qi,second qi,fifth qi and last qi) and relative humidity (the first qi,third qi and fourth qi).The temperature of the first qi and wind speed of the fifth qi were fitted in the regression equation.The attack of scarlet fever was negatively correlated to the temperature of the first qi of the previous year and positively correlated to the wind speed of the fifth qi of the previous year.The regression equation was Y=-914.932-351.455X1 + 1351.195X2 (X1 was the mean temperature of the first qi of the previous year and X2 was the mean wind speed of the fifth qi of the previous year),which was meaningful in predicting the prevalence of scarlet fever.Conclusion The attack of scarlet fever is closely related to six qi and weather,and climate changes at different periods of the previous year can predict the attack of scarlet fever next year.关键词
猩红热/六气/气象/相关性研究Key words
scarlet fever/six qi/weather/correlation research分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
汤巧玲,马师雷,刘宏伟,高思华,贺娟..北京地区1970-2004年猩红热发病与六气及气象因子的相关性研究[J].北京中医药大学学报,2013,36(5):333-336,344,5.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(No.81072896) （No.81072896）
