长江科学院院报2013，Vol.30Issue(7)：16-21,6.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1001-5485.2013.07.004
基于皮尔逊Ⅲ型分布的汉口站年最小月流量趋势性分析
Trend Analysis on the Annual Minimum Monthly Runoff Series of Yangtze River at Hankou Hydrological Station Based on Pearson Type Ⅲ Probability Distribution
摘要
Abstract
It is very important to research the inconsistency (or nonstationarity) of hydrological time series under changing circumstance.Classical regression models,which are widely used in traditional hydrological trend analysis,are based on the assumption that the hydrological variables follow the normal distribution.However,this assumption does not consist with the practical findings in China that most hydrological random variables follow the Pearson type Ⅲ (PⅢ) distribution.In this paper,the regression model based on the assumption of the P Ⅲ distribution is introduced to analyze the trend of annual minimum monthly runoff series of the Yangtze River at Hankou hydrological station observed over the period of 1952-2010.It is found that the regression model based on the PⅢ distribution is more effective than the regression model based on the normal distribution in fitting the trend of hydrological series.Furthermore,the more flexible polynomial is used to analyze the trend of the hydrological series.关键词
趋势性分析/回归模型/正态分布/PⅢ分布/年最小月流量Key words
trend analysis/regression model/normal distribution/PⅢ distribution/annual minimum monthly runoff分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
江聪,熊立华..基于皮尔逊Ⅲ型分布的汉口站年最小月流量趋势性分析[J].长江科学院院报,2013,30(7):16-21,6.基金项目
国家自然科学基金重大项目(51190094) （51190094）
国家自然科学基金项目(51079098) （51079098）
