地震学报2013，Vol.35Issue(3)：341-350,10.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.0253-3782.2013.03.006
基于广义帕累托分布的地震震级分布尾部特征分析
Characterization of tail distribution of earthquake magnitudes via generalized Pareto distribution
摘要
Abstract
Extreme value theory in seismic risk analysis has important application,and the excess of earthquake magnitude distribution over a threshold can be approximated by generalized Pareto distribution.Based on the generalized Pareto distribution,we developed several estimation formulas of seismic activity parameters,including strong earthquake magnitude distribution,earthquake recurrence period and return level,expected recurrence magnitude,probability of seismic risk and maximum earthquake magnitude; then,based on historical seismic data in Yunnan region,we discussed how to choose the threshold value,model fitting diagnosis and parameter estimation.Finally we calculated seismicity parameters in the region.The results show that generalized Pareto distribution characterized strong earthquake magnitude distribution quite satisfactorily,the recurrence periods by POT (peaks over threshold method) model agree with the actual recurrence interval statistics,and the high quantile is stable within a specific threshold range.So the generalized Pareto distribution is a possible approach to determining the potential upper limit earthquake magnitude in engineering seismology.关键词
广义帕累托分布/POT模型/期望重现震级/云南地区Key words
generalized Pareto distribution/ peaks over threshold method/ expected recurrence magnitude/ Yunnan region分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
钱小仕,王福昌,盛书中..基于广义帕累托分布的地震震级分布尾部特征分析[J].地震学报,2013,35(3):341-350,10.基金项目
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(ZY20120205,ZY20110101)资助. （ZY20120205,ZY20110101）
