水利水电技术2013，Vol.44Issue(6)：14-16,3.
BMA方法在黄河龙门站含沙量过程预报中的应用研究
Study on application of BMA method to forecasting of sediment concentration hydrograph at Longmen Hydrological Station on Yellow River
摘要
Abstract
Taking the area from Wubao Hydrological Station to Longmen Hydrological Station within the Yellow River Basin as the study area,two statistical models for the sediment concentration hydrograph at Longmen Hydrological station,i.e.a linear dynamic model and a BP neural network model are established,and then the comprehensive forecasting results from both the models are given in combination with BMA method.The results show that on the basis of the linear dynamic model and the BP neural network model,the application of BMA method to the combined forecasting with the sediment concentration models can not only enhance the accuracy of the forecasting,but can also provide the probabilistic forecasting value.关键词
贝叶斯模型/含沙量过程预报/概率预报/正态分位数转换Key words
Bayesian model/ sediment concentration hydrograph forecasting/ probabilistic forecasting/ transformation of normally-distributed variables分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
曹炎煦,梁忠民,黄清烜,霍世清,许珂艳,常文娟..BMA方法在黄河龙门站含沙量过程预报中的应用研究[J].水利水电技术,2013,44(6):14-16,3.基金项目
水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目专题四"黄河中游龙门、潼关含沙量过程预报技术研究(200901016-04)" （200901016-04）
江苏省普通高校研究生科研创新计划资助项目(CXZZ11-0434). （CXZZ11-0434）
