水土保持研究2013，Vol.20Issue(3)：211-217,225,8.
石家庄市耕地资源数量与经济发展关系研究——基于脉冲响应函数的实证分析
Study on Relationship between Cultivated Land Quantity and Economic Development in Shijiazhuang City——An Empirical Test Based on Impulse Response Function
摘要
Abstract
The cultivated land quantity is closely related to economic development.In order to study the relationship between the number of cultivated land resources and economic development,econometric analysis was made on the area of arable land resources,per capita GDP,the secondary industrial value,the tertiary industry value and farmers' per capita annual net income in the period from 1999 to 2009 in Shijiazhuang City,and the method of the impulse response function and variance decomposition were used for the purpose of coordinating the contradiction of farmland protection and economic development.The result shows that:(1) there exists equilibrium relationship between cultivated land quantity and economic development in the long term; (2) economic development will lead to a reduction in the area of arable land,controlling the amount of cultivated land will inhibit the development of the economy in short term; while the high economy will promote the increase of arable land,and the dependence of economic development on the arable land is weaken in the long term; (3) the variance partition result shows that the contribution rate of the cultivated land quantity to the economic indicators is more significant,especially for the rate of the per capita GDP,secondary industries,and rural per capita net income more than 75％ after three periods; while contribution rate of economic indicators to the cultivated land is lower,the percentage of impact of per capita net income of farmers on the quantity of arable land resources is only about 1％.Therefore,in order to promote sustainable socio-economic development,the following measures should be taken to improve economic efficiency,to strengthen the protection of cultivated land,to improve land use intensity and so on.关键词
耕地资源/经济发展/脉冲响应函数/石家庄市Key words
cultivated land resources/ economic development/ impulse response function/ Shijiazhuang City分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
朱永明,赵丽..石家庄市耕地资源数量与经济发展关系研究——基于脉冲响应函数的实证分析[J].水土保持研究,2013,20(3):211-217,225,8.基金项目
河北省社会科学发展研究项目(201203073) （201203073）
河北省软科学研究计划项目(114072172D) （114072172D）
河北省社会科学基金(HB12SH044) （HB12SH044）
