水土保持研究2013，Vol.20Issue(3)：289-294,6.
中国各省区未来主要畜禽养殖量及耕地氮载荷的预测
Forecast of Livestock and Poultry Amount and Arable Land Nitrogen Load of Chinese Provinces
摘要
Abstract
Livestock pollution has been an important part of the non-point source pollution.Overall,the livestock industry developed very quickly in China during recent decades,and it will continue growing rapidly.Therefore,the pressure of the load of livestock and poultry breeding on the arable land will continue to grow.Based on livestock and poultry data of the provinces in China from 1980 to 2009,the growth trends of livestock and poultry amount and their exerting nitrogen in 2020 was forecasted,and then the provinces arable lands load to the nitrogen exertions from the livestock and poultry was analyzed.The study results showed that the livestock and poultry forecasted by the average growth method were better than the gray model method.For most of the provinces,the amounts of livestock and poultry in 2020 will be as twice as the amount in 2009.The north China and northeast China will be the most important livestock and poultry breeding bases.The amounts of the livestock and poultry and their exerting nitrogen of He'nan,Shandong,Hebei provinces were the most.In 2020,the nitrogen load of the unit arable land area of the 11 provinces including Beijing,Tianjin,Liaoning,Jilin,Shandong,Hebei,He'nan,Guangdong,Hunan,Guangxi,Sichuan will exceed 170 kg/ha,which means that the nitrogen exerted from animals will have arrived the maximum absorptive capacity of the cultivated land even not utilizing the chemical fertilizer.Moreover,in these provinces,the economic growth is fast,its population density is very high,the water network is very intensive,so the soil and water environment will be threatened seriously by the aquaculture livestock pollution.Based on the analysis above,it is recommended that China should pay much attention to environmental pollution problem caused by livestock and poultry breeding,the layout of the livestock and poultry breeding in the provinces should be optimized reasonably.It is necessary to strengthen the management of livestock and poultry industry to reduce their pollution loss.Also it is suggested that the advanced livestock pollution processing technology should be speeded up,investigated and introduced.关键词
畜禽养殖/总氮/耕地载荷/预测Key words
livestock and poultry/ total nitrogen/ arable land load/ forecast分类
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杨飞,吴根义,诸云强,付强..中国各省区未来主要畜禽养殖量及耕地氮载荷的预测[J].水土保持研究,2013,20(3):289-294,6.基金项目
国家环保公益性行业科研专项重大项目(201009017) （201009017）
国家环保公益性行业科研专项(201209030) （201209030）
