同济大学学报（自然科学版）2013，Vol.41Issue(7)：1015-1019,5.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.0253-374x.2013.07.009
快速路交通事件持续时间预测模型
Traffic Incident Duration Forecast Model of Expressway
摘要
Abstract
According to the complexity and uncertainty of impact fact of traffic event duration on urban expressway,a new forecasting model using Bayesian Network and nonparametric regression for traffic incident duration was proposed.A sample database,provided by Shanghai Expressway Monitoring Center,was generated by noise reduction.The algorisms of structure learning and parameter learning were determined based on data characteristics,and the forecast results with non-parametric regression were obtained.Finally,the forecasting model was tested with new data and the results verified the accuracy of the model.关键词
快速路交通/事件持续时间/贝叶斯网络/非参数回归/预测模型Key words
expressway/ traffic incident duration/ Bayesian Network/ non-parametric regression/ forecast model分类
交通工程引用本文复制引用
杨超,汪超..快速路交通事件持续时间预测模型[J].同济大学学报（自然科学版）,2013,41(7):1015-1019,5.基金项目
国家"八六三"高技术研究发展计划(2011AA110305) （2011AA110305）
