中国农业科学2013，Vol.46Issue(4)：705-714,10.DOI:10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2013.04.005
中国小麦自然灾害风险综合评价初步研究
A Preliminary Study of Integrated Assessment of Wheat Natural Disaster Risk in China
摘要
Abstract
[Objective] In order to explore the integrated assessment method of crop natural disaster risk,comprehensive evaluation and analysis of wheat natural disaster risk on the provincial units were carried out.[Method] Based on the regional natural disaster theories,crop natural disaster integrated risk assessment index system was established.Using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and differentiated indexes weighted methods,the integrated assessment index of wheat natural disaster risk (I) was acquired,by which integrated assessment and zoning of wheat natural disaster risk was carried out,and the assessment results was verified by the estimated value of wheat yield loss (L) due to disasters.[Result] Based on frequency data of different natural disasters with wheat as hazard-bearing body,the components and hazard of disaster-causing factors of different provinces were analyzed.Forty indexes were chosen to appreciate stability of disaster environment (S),hazard of disaster-causing factor (H),vulnerability of wheat (V) and capability of disaster defending and resistance (C),which were compared within different provinces,and the risk integrated index Ⅰ was assessed by the assessment model.The risk map of wheat natural disaster risk was drawn based on GIS,which showed that the higher risk regions mainly concentrated in Northwest wheat zone,Huanghuai wheat zone,and mid lower reaches of the Yangtze River wheat zone.The assessment result was found to be significantly correlated with the result of wheat yield loss (L) estimated.[Conclusion] The assessment method and results can be used to explore and develop integrated strategies including risk monitoring,forecasting,defending and resistance so as to mitigate wheat production risks.关键词
小麦/自然灾害风险/综合评价/指标体系Key words
wheat/ natural disaster risk/ integrated assessment/ indexes system引用本文复制引用
赵俊晔,张峭,赵思健..中国小麦自然灾害风险综合评价初步研究[J].中国农业科学,2013,46(4):705-714,10.基金项目
科技部国家"十二五"科技支撑项目(2012BAH20B04) （2012BAH20B04）
