湖泊科学2013，Vol.25Issue(4)：565-575,11.
SRES情景下多模式集合对淮河流域未来气候变化的预估
Projections of future climate change over Huaihe River basin by multimodel ensembles under SRES scenarios
摘要
Abstract
Using multimodel ensemble mean results of 8 global coupled ocean-atmosphere models in the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) by bias-corrected statistical downscaling method,possible changes of surface air temperature and precipitation over Huaihe River basin were predicted in future (2011-2040) relative to baseline (1961-1990) under SRES A2,A1B and B1 scenarios.The results indicate that (1) multimodel ensembles can reproduce a large-scale spatial distribution of annual,seasonal temperature and precipitation over the Huaihe River basin.It can also refleet better on monthly temperature and precipitation distributed processes within the year.Compared with the observations,the monthly temperature has a difference about 0.2℃ (expect winter),and the precipitation has a difference about 5％ (except September).(2) The annual and seasonal temperature presents an upward trend under different scenarios.The annual temperature increases with a range of 0.85-1.12℃,while temperature in winter and spring increases more obviously than that in summer and autumn.(3) The annual precipitation increases with a range of 0.13％-5.24％ in future,but the changes are not significant.Seasonal precipitation presents an increasing or decreasing tendency,however seasonal,interannual and interdecadal precipitation changes are more complex.The spatial pattern of precipitation varies obviously under different scenarios.关键词
区域气候变化预估/多模式集合/地面温度/降水/淮河流域Key words
Regional climate change projection/multimodel ensembles/surface air temperature/precipitation/Huaihe River basin引用本文复制引用
吴迪,严登华..SRES情景下多模式集合对淮河流域未来气候变化的预估[J].湖泊科学,2013,25(4):565-575,11.基金项目
国家重点基础研究发展计划"973"项目(2010CB951102)和国家科技支撑计划"十二五"项目(2012BAC19B03)联合资助. （2010CB951102）
