中国农业科学2013，Vol.46Issue(3)：586-594,9.DOI:10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2013.03.015
UHT乳货架期预测模型的建立及检验
Establishment and Test of Prediction Model for UHT Milk Shelf Life
摘要
Abstract
[Objective] The objective of this study is to establish a forecasting model for predicting the shelf life of UHT milk.The model is based on somatic cell count,the number of psychrophilic bacteria,heat-stable protease activity of raw milk,preservation temperature of UHT milk and other indicators.[Method] The quadratic orthogonal three-factor test and multiple linear stepwise regression method were used to design the experiment and to analyze the data.Boiling test and alcohol test are regarded as standard of shelf-life of UHT milk,and sensory score and determination of the degree of protein hydrolysis are regarded as a supplementary criterion.These methods were used to monitor variation of main quality of product,which were made of different qualities of raw milk by the UHT and deposited at different temperatures.[Result] Through the quadratic orthogonal rotatable design and analysis,SCC (X1),proteinase activity (X2) and temperature (X3) were used as independent variables,and the obtained equation is Y=53.94-3.46X1-6.56X2-3.52X3+0.89X12+2.67X22+0.19X32-2.75X1X2+1.50X1X3+2.0X2X3.The effect of three factors on shelf life was significant.Analysis of variance showed that the impact factors followed the order:X2(P=0.0002),X3(P=0.0160),X1(P=0.0173).Through multiple linear regression design,the obtained optimized model equation is Y=103.752+0.0297X1-0.0000597X2-3.661X3-0.000316XS-0.469X6 (R=0.8870,R2=0.7867).[Conclusion] Equation can be used to forecast shelf life as the results of model tested and estimated successfully by t-test,F-test,D.W and MAPE,etc.The assessment standards of applicability of raw milk for UHT process was constructed.关键词
UHT乳/货架期/预测模型/检验Key words
UHT milk/ shelf life/ prediction model/ test引用本文复制引用
王辉,孙琦,刘鹭,张书文,段玉权,吕加平..UHT乳货架期预测模型的建立及检验[J].中国农业科学,2013,46(3):586-594,9.基金项目
国家公益性行业(农业)科研专项(200903043)、国家自然科学基金项目(31071575)、奶牛产业技术体系北京市创新团队 （农业）
