湖南大学学报（自然科学版）2013，Vol.40Issue(4)：49-54,6.
基于超越对数函数的道路交通事故频数预测
Research on Traffic Accident Frequency Prediction Based on Translog Production Function
摘要
Abstract
Aiming at the limitation of the traditional log-linear model widely applied to frequency prediction of traffic accidents,in which the elasticity is assumed as constant and the interrelation of the explosive variables is simplified,a new frequency prediction model of traffic accidents based on translog production function was proposed.Adopting a dynamic elasticity,the model predicts the accident frequency according to two major variables:traffic flow and the length of section.The Ontario accident statistics from Canada has verified its effectiveness and better goodness of fit compared with the traditional log-linear model.关键词
对数-线性模型/超越对数函数/道路交通事故/频数/预测Key words
log-linear model/ translog production function/ accidents/ frequency/ prediction分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
李蓉,刘湘,刘坚..基于超越对数函数的道路交通事故频数预测[J].湖南大学学报（自然科学版）,2013,40(4):49-54,6.基金项目
国家科技重大专项(2011ZX04015-041) （2011ZX04015-041）
汽车车身先进设计制造国家重点实验室自主课题(71075005) （71075005）
