西南交通大学学报2013，Vol.48Issue(2)：376-382,7.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.0258-2724.2013.02.028
交通事故持续期内行程时间的可靠性研究
Travel Time Reliability during Incident Duration Time
摘要
Abstract
In order to describe the stochasticity in road network performance under the influence of an incident,the travel time reliability of the road network was defined as the probability that the mean travel time during incident is smaller than a prespecified threshold.The incident duration was assumed to be a stochastic variable with normal distribution,and is divided into several equal sub-sections.Then,a Monte-Carlo based simulation methodology was put forward to compute the travel time reliability,in which the logit principle and link transmission model are incorporated.A test network was used to illustrate the methodology,in which the mean value of incident duration varies between 8 and 20 min,and variances between 0.5 and 5.0 min,the travel demand of each sub-sections is 4.0 and 4.5 vehicles,and the threshold is 2.0 and 2.2 times the travel time before incident.The results show that the network travel time reliability decreases with the mean incident duration in all cases.In addition,when the travel demand of each sub-section is 4.5 vehicles and the threshold is 2.0 times the travel time before incident,the network travel time reliability increases with the incident duration variance; however,when the demand is smaller than 4.5 vehicles and the threshold is larger than 2.2,the network travel time reliability decreases with the incident duration variance.关键词
事故持续时间/行程时间可靠性/路段传输模型/Monte-Carlo算法Key words
duration time/travel time reliability/link transmission model/Monte-Carlo method分类
交通工程引用本文复制引用
陈玲娟,刘海旭,蒲云..交通事故持续期内行程时间的可靠性研究[J].西南交通大学学报,2013,48(2):376-382,7.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(50908196) （50908196）
本文工作得到西南交通大学校基金(2010XS25,SWJTU09CX041)的资助. （2010XS25,SWJTU09CX041）
