地震地磁观测与研究2013，Vol.34Issue(3)：41-45,5.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1003-3246.2013.03/04.009
灰色马尔可夫理论在地震预测方面的研究
Research of the earthquake prediction based on gray Markov mode
摘要
Abstract
The interest of this paper is to propose a Gray Markov (GM) model for earthquake prediction with the example of the 2008 Wenchuan aftershocks occured in the area of southern Shaanxi provinces.The aftershocks data are fitted for a preliminary prediction based on GM(1,1) model.The results of preliminary prediction are revised using Markov model's state interval and state transition matrix.The next group of earthquake data are used to predict based on Gray-Markov model.It shows that the method is more accurate.The results show that the predicted values and real values are in a good match.Then,the predicted values and real values are also very close.This method can be recognized as practicality in earthquake prediction,even in the field of weather forecast.关键词
地震预测/GM(1,1)/灰色马尔可夫模型/状态转移矩阵Key words
earthquake prediction/ GM(1,1)/ Gray-Markov model/ state transition matrix引用本文复制引用
王党席,董平江,韩晓飞..灰色马尔可夫理论在地震预测方面的研究[J].地震地磁观测与研究,2013,34(3):41-45,5.基金项目
陕西省地震局青年科研基金课题(编号201106) （编号201106）
