应用生态学报2013，Vol.24Issue(7)：2007-2014,8.
基于贝叶斯Schaefer模型的阿根廷滑柔鱼资源评估与管理
Stock assessment and management for Illex argentinus in Southwest Atlantic Ocean based on Bayesian Schaefer model
摘要
Abstract
Bayesian Schaefer model was applied to assess the stock of Illex argentinus in the Southwest Atlantic Ocean,with the risk of alternative management strategies for the squid analyzed.Under the scenarios of normal and uniform prior assumptions,the estimated model parameters and reference points were similar,and higher than the values under the scenario of logarithmic normal prior assumption.Under the three proposed scenarios,the fishing mortalities and the total catches in 2001-2010 were lower than the reference point F0.1 and the maximum sustainable yield (MSY),indicating that the I.argentinus was in an expected sustainable exploited level but not in over-fishing and over-fished.The results of decision analysis indicated that at the same harvest rate,the stock of the I.argentinus under the scenario of logarithmic normal prior assumption in 2025 would be the lowest,and the probability of collapse would be the highest.Under the three scenarios,the harvest rate in 2025 would be all 0.6 if the catch was the maximum.However,if the harvest rate was set to 0.6,the stock of the I.argentinus after 2025 would have definite risk,and thus,the harvest rate 0.4 and the catch 550000 t appeared to be the best management regulation or the baseline case.关键词
阿根廷滑柔鱼/资源评估与管理/Schaefer模型/西南大西洋Key words
Illex argentinus/stock assessment and management/Schaefer model/Southwest Atlantic Ocean分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
陆化杰,陈新军,李纲,曹杰..基于贝叶斯Schaefer模型的阿根廷滑柔鱼资源评估与管理[J].应用生态学报,2013,24(7):2007-2014,8.基金项目
国家发改委产业化专项(2159999)、国家高技术研究发展计划项目(2012AA092303)、国家自然科学基金项目(NSFC41276156)、国家科技支撑计划项目(2013BAD13B01)和上海市科技创新行动计划项目(12231203900)资助. （2159999）
